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何星彥 ， 周    直

（ 重慶交通大學(xué) 經(jīng)濟(jì)管理與學(xué)院 ，重慶 400074)

摘   要 ：“ 十四五 ”規(guī)劃《 綱要》的有關(guān)內(nèi)容，體現(xiàn)了對(duì) PPP 項(xiàng)目的更高要求，而大力倡導(dǎo)的 EOD 模式 與 PPP 項(xiàng)目的結(jié)合，有助于 PPP 項(xiàng)目實(shí)現(xiàn)高質(zhì)量發(fā)展 。文章為解決 PPP+ EOD 項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)問題，在考慮了 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)關(guān)聯(lián)的基礎(chǔ)上，刻畫了項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失，再立足于演化博弈視角，構(gòu)建了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)演化博弈模型并獲得了不同情況下的演化穩(wěn)定策略 。研究表明：在考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)關(guān)聯(lián)條件下，會(huì)得到與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)直觀損失不同的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失值，從而影響政府部門與社會(huì)資本的策略選擇，進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致同一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的演化結(jié)果有所不同。

關(guān)鍵詞 ：PPP 項(xiàng)目 ；EOD 模式 ；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān) ；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)關(guān)聯(lián) ；演化博弈

中圖分類號(hào) ：X22           

文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼 ：A            

文章編號(hào) ：1005- 8249  (2023)   04- 0112- 11

 DOI : 10. 19860/j . cnki . issn1005- 8249. 2023 . 04. 019

HE Xingyan ,  ZHOU Zhi

( School of Economics and Management ,   Chongqing Jiaotong University ,   Chongqing 400074 ,   China)

Abstract: The relevant contents of the Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan reflect the higher requirements for PPP projects, and the combination of the EOD model and PPP projects is strongly advocated to help PPP projects achieve high-quality development. In order to solve the risk-sharing problem of PPP+EOD projects, the article describes the project risk loss on the basis of risk association, and then constructs a risk-sharing evolutionary game model based on the perspective of evolutionary game and obtains the evolutionary stabilization strategies under different situations. The study shows that under the condition of risk association, different risk loss values are obtained from the risk intuition loss, which affects the strategy choice of government departments and social capital, thus leading to different evolutionary outcomes for the same risk.

Keywords: PPP project; EOD model; risk sharing; risk association; evolutionary game;

作者簡介 ：何星彥  ( 1997—) ,   女 ，碩士研究生 ，研究方向?yàn)轫?xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理。

收稿日期 ：2022- 03-31