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何星彥 ， 周    直

（ 重慶交通大學 經濟管理與學院 ，重慶 400074)

摘   要 ：“ 十四五 ”規劃《 綱要》的有關內容，體現了對 PPP 項目的更高要求，而大力倡導的 EOD 模式 與 PPP 項目的結合，有助于 PPP 項目實現高質量發展 。文章為解決 PPP+ EOD 項目的風險分擔問題，在考慮了 風險關聯的基礎上，刻畫了項目風險損失，再立足于演化博弈視角，構建了風險分擔演化博弈模型并獲得了不同情況下的演化穩定策略 。研究表明：在考慮風險關聯條件下，會得到與風險直觀損失不同的風險損失值，從而影響政府部門與社會資本的策略選擇，進而導致同一風險的演化結果有所不同。

關鍵詞 ：PPP 項目 ；EOD 模式 ；風險分擔 ；風險關聯 ；演化博弈

中圖分類號 ：X22           

文獻標志碼 ：A            

文章編號 ：1005- 8249  (2023)   04- 0112- 11

 DOI : 10. 19860/j . cnki . issn1005- 8249. 2023 . 04. 019

HE Xingyan ,  ZHOU Zhi

( School of Economics and Management ,   Chongqing Jiaotong University ,   Chongqing 400074 ,   China)

Abstract: The relevant contents of the Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan reflect the higher requirements for PPP projects, and the combination of the EOD model and PPP projects is strongly advocated to help PPP projects achieve high-quality development. In order to solve the risk-sharing problem of PPP+EOD projects, the article describes the project risk loss on the basis of risk association, and then constructs a risk-sharing evolutionary game model based on the perspective of evolutionary game and obtains the evolutionary stabilization strategies under different situations. The study shows that under the condition of risk association, different risk loss values are obtained from the risk intuition loss, which affects the strategy choice of government departments and social capital, thus leading to different evolutionary outcomes for the same risk.

Keywords: PPP project; EOD model; risk sharing; risk association; evolutionary game;

作者簡介 ：何星彥  ( 1997—) ,   女 ，碩士研究生 ，研究方向為項目風險管理。

收稿日期 ：2022- 03-31