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礦區(qū)油氣管道滑坡的穩(wěn)定性分析及危險性評價

Stability Analysis and Risk Assessment of Oil and Gas Pipeline Landslide

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張寧曉，張瑩

（河南省第四地質(zhì)勘查院有限公司，河南鄭州 450001)

摘要：為有效掌握油氣管道滑坡的穩(wěn)定性及其危險性，基于滑坡現(xiàn)場勘查成果及變形數(shù)據(jù) ，先采用傳遞系數(shù)法和尖點(diǎn)突變分析開展滑坡穩(wěn)定性評價，再利用 P ×C 分級法評價不同評價指標(biāo)對管道的危險性程度。結(jié)果表明：通過傳遞系數(shù)法計算，得出3 個監(jiān)測剖面在不同工況條件下的穩(wěn)定性系數(shù)范圍為 1 . 005 ~ 1 . 224 , 屬欠穩(wěn)定~穩(wěn)定狀態(tài) ；通過尖點(diǎn)突變分析，得到 5 個監(jiān)測點(diǎn)的突變特征值范圍為 3 . 961 ×109 ~ 5. 331 ×109 , 均大于 0 , 說明各監(jiān)測點(diǎn)對應(yīng)位置均處于穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)；對比傳遞系數(shù)法和尖點(diǎn)突變分析的穩(wěn)定性評價結(jié)果，綜合得出滑坡目前處于穩(wěn)定性狀態(tài)；在危險性評價結(jié)果中，整體評價的危險性得分為 81 . 25 , 總體得分偏高，危險性等級屬Ⅲ級，即滑坡災(zāi)害對管道威脅一般，需盡快開展局部及整體的防治措施研究，以保證管道安全。

關(guān)鍵詞：管道滑坡；傳遞系數(shù)法；尖點(diǎn)突變分析；變形監(jiān)測；危險性評價

中圖分類號：P642

文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A

文章編號： 1005- 8249 (2024) 04- 0081- 07

DOI:10. 19860/j.cnki.issn1005 - 8249.2024.04.014

ZHANG Ningxiao , ZHANG Ying

(The Fourth Geological Exploration Institute Co. ，Ltd. ，Zhengzhou 450001 , China)

Abstract: In order to effectively grasp the stability and danger of oil and gas pipeline landslides, based on the results of on-site landslide investigation and deformation data, the transfer coefficient method and sharp point mutation analysis are first used to evaluate the stability of landslides, and then the P×C classification method is used to evaluate the degree of danger of different evaluation indicators on the pipeline. The example analysis results show that through the transfer coefficient method calculation, the stability coefficient range of the three monitoring profiles under different operating conditions is 1.005~1.224, belonging to an unstable~stable state;Through sharp point mutation analysis, the range of mutation characteristic values for 5 monitoring points is 3.961 × 10⁹~5.331 × 10⁹, all greater than 0, indicating that the corresponding positions of each monitoring point are in a stable state; By comparing the stability evaluation results of the transfer coefficient method and the sharp point mutation analysis, it is concluded that the landslide is currently in a stable state. In the risk assessment results, the overall risk score is 81.25, which is relatively high. The risk level belongs to level III, which means that landslide disasters pose a moderate threat to pipelines. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out local and overall prevention and control measures research as soon as possible to ensure pipeline safety.

Keywords: pipeline landslide; transfer coefficient method; cusp mutation analysis; deformation monitoring; risk assessment

作者簡介：張寧曉 (1986—)男，本科，工程師，研究方向：地質(zhì)水工環(huán) 、地質(zhì)災(zāi)害防治、生態(tài)修復(fù)相關(guān)工作。

收稿日期：2023- 03- 07