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衛江旗 ，王   猛

（河南省第四地質勘查院有限公司 ，河南 鄭州 450001)

摘   要 ：為有效掌握老滑坡復活成因及其后續變形特征，基于老滑坡所處地質條件 ，先開展其復活成因分析，再結合滑坡變形數據，通過 IBA- ELM- CT 模型和 M - K 分析實現其變形預測和趨勢評價， 以充分掌握滑坡后續變形特征。結果表明：在老滑坡復活成因分析結果中，地層巖性、地形地貌及地質構造是老滑坡復活的固有因素，降雨和人類工程活動是老滑坡復活的誘發因素，兩類因素共同作用造成了老滑坡復活。在滑坡后續變形研究結果中，IBA- ELM- CT 模型具有較高的預測精度，且據外推預測結果，滑坡中部后續變形速率相對更大， 即其后續變形速率趨于增大，后緣與前緣后續變形減少趨勢 ；同時，據 M - K 分析結果 ，滑坡中部始終具變形增加特征，對應后緣 、前緣變形后續具減小趨勢， 即其變形趨于穩定，此分析結果與預測結果對比，得到滑坡后續變形特征分析結果具有較優的一致性，相互佐證了兩類方法的準確性，為滑坡災害防治提供了一定的參考。

關鍵詞：滑坡 ；復活成因 ；變形預測 ；M - K 分析 ；變形趨勢

中圖分類號：P642           

文獻標志碼：A            

文章編號： 1005- 8249   (2024)  06- 0161- 07 

DOI:10. 19860/j.cnki.issn1005 - 8249.2024.06.029

WEI Jiangqi ,  WANG Meng

(The Fourth Geological Exploration Institute of Henan Provice Co. ，Ltd. ，Zhengzhou 450001 ,   China) 

Abstract: In order to effectively grasp the causes of the revival of the old landslide and its subsequent deformation characteristics, based on the geological conditions of the old landslide, an analysis of its revival causes is carried out first. Then, combined with the landslide deformation data, deformation prediction and trend evaluation are achieved through the IBA-ELM-CT model and M-K analysis, in order to fully grasp the subsequent deformation characteristics of the landslide. The analysis results indicate that in the analysis of the causes of the revival of old landslides, geological lithology, topography, and geological structure are inherent factors for the revival of old landslides, while rainfall and human engineering activities are triggering factors for the revival of old landslides. The combined effect of these two factors leads to the revival of old landslides. In the subsequent deformation research results of landslides, the IBA-ELM-CT model has high prediction accuracy, and according to the extrapolated prediction results, the subsequent deformation rate V2 of DD4 monitoring point is relatively larger, that is, its subsequent deformation rate tends to increase, while the other two monitoring points are the opposite; Meanwhile, according to the M-K analysis results, the middle part of the landslide always shows an increasing deformation trend, while the deformation of the rear and front edges shows a decreasing trend, indicating that their deformation tends to stabilize. Compared with the predicted results, the analysis results of the subsequent deformation characteristics of the landslide have better consistency, which mutually confirms the accuracy of the two methods and provides a certain reference for landslide disaster prevention and control.

Keywords :  landslide;  the  cause of resurrection;  deformation prediction;   M - K analysis;  deformation trend

作者簡介： 衛江旗  (1989—) ,  男，本科，工程師，研究方向：地質礦產及地質環境修復。

收稿日期：2023- 08- 24