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胡文奎¹ ,  薛明華¹ ,  劉衛衛¹ ,  鹿傳磊^{2 , 3}

( 1 .  濟南市勘察測繪研究院 ，濟南 250101 ;

2.  中國地質調查局哈爾濱自然資源綜合調查中心 ，哈爾濱 150081 ;

3 .  自然資源部哈爾濱黑土地地球關鍵帶野外科學觀測研究站 ，哈爾濱 150086 )

摘   要 ：為了提高滑坡穩定性分析和治理方案的合理性， 以云南省鳳慶滑坡為工程背景，采用強度折減法計算了滑坡穩定性系數 ，并基于蒙特卡洛模擬和可靠度理論分析了滑坡的失效概率。通過 Spearman 系數分析了 巖土參數對穩定性系數和坡體位移的敏感性。研究結果表明，該滑坡的穩定性系數為 0. 863 ,  經過 “削坡 ＋格構 錨桿＋截排水 ”的綜合治理后，失效概率降低至 1 . 6% ,  滑坡處于穩定狀態。對穩定性系數敏感性最大的四個參數分別為全風化砂巖的內摩擦角、內聚力 、粉質黏土的內聚力和內摩擦角，而粉質黏土和全風化砂巖的天然重 度對穩定性系數的敏感性為負。該研究為類似工程背景下的滑坡穩定性可靠度分析提供了參考。

關鍵詞：可靠度理論 ；滑坡 ；穩定性系數 ；蒙特卡洛模擬 ；滑坡治理

中圖分類號：TU443           

文獻標志碼：A            

文章編號： 1005- 8249  (2025)  01- 0156- 07 

DOI:10. 19860/j.cnki.issn1005 - 8249.2025 .01 .029

 

HU Wenkui ¹  ,  XUE Minghua¹  ,  LIU Weiwei ¹  ,  LU Chuanlei^2 , 3

( 1 . Ji ’nan Geotechnical Investigation and Surveying Institute ,   Ji ’nan 250101 ,   China;

2. Harbin Natural Resources Comprehensive Survev Center ,   China Geological Suvey ,   Harbin 15008l ,   China;  3. Station of Earth Critical Zone in Black Soil of Harbin ,  Ministry of Natural Resources ,  Harbin 150086 ,  China)

Abstract: To enhance the rationality of landslide stability analysis and remediation strategies, this study takes the Fengqing landslide in Yunnan Province as the engineering context. The stability coefficient of the landslide was calculated using the strength reduction method, and the failure probability was analyzed based on Monte Carlo simulation and reliability theory. The sensitivity of geotechnical parameters to the stability coefficient and slope displacement was assessed using the Spearman coefficient. The results indicate that the stability factor of the landslide is 0.863 before remediation. After comprehensive remediation involving “slope reduction, grid anchors, and drainage interception,” the failure probability is 1.6%, and the landslide is stable. The four parameters with the highest sensitivity to the stability coefficient are the internal friction angle of fully weathered sandstone (0.3292), cohesion (0.2594), cohesion of silty clay (0.2040), and internal friction angle (0.2000), while the natural unit weight of silty clay and fully weathered sandstone shows negative sensitivity to the stability coefficient. This study provides a reference for reliability analysis of landslide stability under similar engineering contexts.

Key words: reliability theory; landslides; stability coefficients; Monte Carlo simulation; landslide management

作者簡介： 胡文奎  (1979—) ,  男 ，本科 ，高級工程師 ，研究方向：巖土工程專業技術與管理。

通信作者：鹿傳磊  (1983—) ,  男 ，本科 ，高級工程師 ，研究方向： 工程勘查技術與施工管理。

收稿日期：2024 - 05 - 07