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白   霖 ，毛紅梅 ，王安東 ，李   斌 

（陜西鐵路工程職業技術學院 ，渭南 714000)

摘   要 ：為實現基坑沉降變形的高精度預測 ，在總結傳統組合預測模型不足基礎上 ，先進行單項預測模型  篩選 ，并對各單項預測模型進行參數優化處理 ；其次 ，進一步進行非線性組合及節點間距離的優化處理和考慮  相鄰節點的優化處理 ，以實現基坑沉降變形的優化組合預測。結果表明： ELM 模型 、GM  ( 1 ,  1)  模型及 SVR  模型具有很好的互補性 ，可將其作為基礎預測模型 ，再通過在沉降變形預測過程中的優化組合處理 ，所得預測  結果的平均相對誤差介于 1 . 56% ~ 1 . 65% ,  具較高的預測精度及穩健性 ，并將預測結果與傳統模型預測結果比  較 ，得出預測模型具有相對更優的預測精度 ，驗證其構建思路是有效的 ，適用于基坑沉降變形預測。通過研究， 以期為基坑變形規律研究提供理論指導。

關鍵詞：基坑 ；沉降變形 ；單項預測模型 ；優化處理 ；組合預測

中圖分類號：TU43           

文獻標志碼：A           

文章編號： 1005- 8249   (2025)  03- 0122- 06

DOI:10. 19860/j.cnki.issn1005 - 8249.2025 .03 .022

 

BAI Lin ,  MAO Hongmei ,  WANG Andong ,  LI Bin

(Shaanxi Railway Institute ,  Weinan 714000 ,  China)

Abstract: In order to achieve high-precision prediction of foundation pit settlement and deformation, based on the summary of the shortcomings of traditional combination prediction models, a single prediction model screening is first carried out, and the parameters of each single prediction model are optimized; Secondly, further optimization of nonlinear combination and distance between nodes, as well as consideration of optimization of adjacent nodes, is carried out to achieve optimized combination prediction of foundation pit settlement deformation. Example analysis shows that: The ELM model, GM (1,1) model, and SVR model have good complementarity and can be used as basic prediction models. Through optimized combination processing in the settlement deformation prediction process, the average relative error of the predicted results ranges from 1.56% to 1.65%, with high prediction accuracy and robustness. The prediction results are compared with those of traditional models, and it is concluded that the prediction model has relatively better prediction accuracy, which verifies the effectiveness of its construction idea and is suitable for predicting foundation pit settlement deformation. Through research, we aim to provide theoretical guidance for the study of deformation laws in foundation pits.

Keywords: foundation pit; settlement deformation; single prediction model; optimization treatment; combination prediction

作者簡介： 白    霖  (1992—) ,   男 ，碩士 ，助理工程師 ，研 究方向：橋隧施工技術應用。

收稿日期：2023 - 06 - 09