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周    直 ， 周    鑫

（ 重慶交通大學 經濟與管理學院 ，重慶 400074)

摘   要：為準確評價橋梁深水基礎大直徑雙壁鋼圍堰施工安全風險，針對其評價中模糊性 、隨機性、不確定性等特點 ，構建基于最優云熵改進云模型與改進證據理論的風險評價模型 。依據研究文獻與標準規范，從人、 物 、管理 、環境 、技術維度建立風險評價指標體系；基于博弈論思想 ，運用改進群組 G1 法與改進 CRITIC 法確  定指標權重；借助最優云熵改進云模型構建基本概率分配函數，引入沖突系數 、Jousselme 距離 、Pignistic 概率  距離與 Tanimoto 測度衡量證據沖突程度并修正證據源，再采用改進證據理論融合專家基本概率分配，且依據非對稱貼近度原則確定風險等級。上述模型應用于豐都長江二橋 2# 、3#主墩施工，其評價結果與工程實際相符， 驗證了該模型在雙壁鋼圍堰施工安全風險評價中的有效性。

關鍵詞 ：深水基礎 ；雙壁鋼圍堰 ；改進云模型 ；改進證據理論 ；風險評價

中圖分類號 ：U445 . 55+ 6           

文獻標志碼 ：A            

文章編號 ：1005- 8249  (2023)   04- 0092- 08

 DOI : 10. 19860/j . cnki . issn1005- 8249. 2023 . 04. 016

ZHOU Zhi ,  ZHOU Xin

( School of Economics and Management ,   Chongqing Jiaotong University ,   Chongqing 400074 ,   China)

Abstract：In order to accurately evaluate the construction safety risk of large diameter double-wall steel confferdam for bridge deepwater foundation, the risk assessment model is established based on the improved cloud model with optimal cloud entropy and the improved evidence theory, aiming at the characteristics of fuzziness, randomness and uncertainty in the assessment process. According to the research literature and standards, the risk assessment index system is established from five dimensions of human, material, management, environment and technology. Based on the game theory, the improved group G1 method and the improved CRITIC method are used to determine the comprehensive weight of each index. With the optimal cloud entropy to improve the cloud model, the basic probability assignment function is constructed, then the conflict coefficient, Jousselme distance, Pignistic probability distance and Tanimoto measure are introduced to measure the evidence conflict and correct the evidence. After that, the improved evidence theory is used to integrate the basic probability assignment of experts, and the risk level is determined according to the principle of asymmetric closeness. The above model is applied to the construction of the 2# and 3# main piers of the Second Yangtze River Bridge in Fengdu. The assessment results are consistent with the actual engineering, which verifies the effectiveness of the model in the construction safety risk assessment of double-wall steel cofferdam.

Keywords：deepwater foundation；double-wall steel confferdam；improved cloud model；improved evidence theory；risk assessme

作者簡介 ：周直  (1958—) ,  男 ，博士，教授，研究方向 ：工程項目管理 、風險管理。

通信作者 ：周鑫  (1998—) ,  男 ，碩士研究生，研究方向 ：工程項目管理 、風險管理。

收稿日期 ：2022- 07-29