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王榮榮 ，王   猛 ，魏中凱

 

（河南省第四地質勘查院有限公司 ，鄭州 450001)

摘   要 ：為準確實現滑坡災害的態勢評估， 以滑坡變形數據為基礎，先開展其變形特征分析，再利用變分模態分解開展變形數據的多尺度變量提取，以得到若干模態分量；同時，通過極限學習機和改進麻雀搜索算法構建滑坡變形預測模型，并利用預測結果實現滑坡災害態勢評估分析。研究表明：在監測時段內，各監測點的累計變形量介于 84. 16 ~ 212. 48 mm 之間，即滑坡整體累計變形已相對較大，且變形速率也具較大的波動范圍， 因此，該滑坡變形特征顯著；同時，變分模態分解能有效實現滑坡變形數據的多尺度變量提取，并由預測結果可知，多尺度變量提取 處 理 及 參 數 優 化 處 理 均 能 有 效 提 高 預 測 精 度 ，所 得 預 測 結 果 的 相 對 誤 差 主 要 間 于  1 . 98 %~ 2. 14 % ,  具有較優預測效果 ，且按不利原則 ，滑坡的災害態勢將會進一步加重，需盡快開展防災整治。取 處 理 及 參 數 優 化 處 理 均 能 有 效 提 高 預 測 精 度 ，所 得 預 測 結 果 的 相 對 誤 差 主 要 間 于  1 . 98 %~ 2. 14 % ,  具有較優預測效果 ，且按不利原則 ，滑坡的災害態勢將會進一步加重 ，需盡快開展防災整治。

關鍵詞：滑坡 ；變分模態分解 ；變形預測 ；相對誤差 ；災害態勢

中圖分類號：TU196           

文獻標志碼：A            

文章編號： 1005- 8249   (2025)  01- 0150- 06 

DOI:10. 19860/j.cnki.issn1005 - 8249.2025 .01 .028

 

WANG Rongrong ,  WANG Meng ,  WEI Zhongkai

(Henan Fourth Geological Exploration Institute Co. ，Ltd. ，Zhengzhou 450001 ,   China)

Abstract:To accurately assess the situation of landslide disasters, based on landslide deformation data, deformation characteristic analysis is carried out first, and then multi-scale variable extraction of deformation data is carried out using variational mode decomposition to obtain several modal components; At the same time, a landslide deformation prediction model is constructed through extreme learning machines and improved sparrow search algorithms, and the prediction results are used to achieve landslide disaster situation assessment and analysis. The analysis results show that during the monitoring period, the cumulative deformation of each monitoring point ranges from 84.16 to 212.48 mm, indicating that the overall cumulative deformation of the landslide is relatively large, and the deformation rate also has a large fluctuation range. Therefore, the deformation characteristics of the landslide are significant; At the same time, variational mode decomposition can effectively extract multi-scale variables from landslide deformation data, and the prediction results show that both multi-scale variable extraction and parameter optimization can effectively improve the prediction accuracy. The relative error of the obtained prediction results mainly ranges from 1.98% to 2.14%, which has a better prediction effect. According to the principle of disadvantage, the disaster situation of landslides will further worsen, and disaster prevention and remediation should be carried out as soon as possible.

Key words: landslide; variational mode decomposition; deformation prediction; relative error; disaster situation

基金項目：河南省國土資源廳 2018 年度省財政地質科研項目（ 豫國土資發〔2018〕98 號- 12) 。

作者簡介： 王榮榮  (1990—) , 女，本科，工程師，研究方向：地質災害防治 、工程地質 、環境地質 、生態修復勘查設計治理。

收稿日期：2023 - 03 - 04